Insights Now

The Fed: Hiking up a hill of uncertainty

This episode kicks off our fifth season of Insights Now. Over the course of this season, Dr. David Kelly will sit down with a slate of market strategists and subject matter experts to discuss topics such as the implications of aggressive Fed tightening, the European energy crisis, equity market volatility, and the future of globalization to try to provide some insight into investing in this very stormy climate.

On the episode, we tackle important questions for investors surrounding the outlook for the Federal Reserve. After a slow start, the Fed is now reacting very aggressively to higher inflation, boosting interest rates across the board and threatening the economy with recession. As markets have come under intense pressure from this increased hawkishness, it is an opportune time to have a conversation with our fixed income strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Jordan Jackson on positioning portfolios amidst this environment of higher rates, elevated inflation and market volatility.

Investing in Troubled Times

Investors have had a challenging year so far, however, while outlook remains cloudy, investors should remember that the U.S. has always been an economy of long summers and short winters. While winter may be coming soon, much of the "bad news" might already be priced into markets, and investors may be wise to take advantage of the correction in valuations to position portfolios for the long summer, or expansion, ahead. For the last episode this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, for an insightful conversation on navigating investing in troubled times.

For additional resources please visit Principles for successful long-term investing. We'd also love to hear your thoughts and any suggestions you may have on our podcast as we plan for our next season. You can reach out to our team, Market Insights, at mi.questions@jpmorgan.com.

Alternatives in a higher rate, slower growth world

2022 has been a challenging year for most public asset classes, leaving many investors at odds on how to position portfolios, protect against inflation and identify areas for potential excess returns going forward. While markets have been more challenging, the need for income, capital appreciation and capital preservation has not changed. That’s where alternative investments may provide some solutions.

On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, to discuss the outlook for Alternatives in an environment with higher rates and slower growth.

For more information on the Guide to Alternatives, please visit our website here.

The Labor Market: Cyclical strength and structural change

Today, as investors mull the increasing risk of a U.S. recession, the strength in the labor market can be a double-edged sword. On one end, a healthy labor market with red-hot demand for workers could protect the economy from high unemployment in the next recession. On the other end, too-hot of a labor market gives the Fed a greater need to act aggressively to tame inflation and prevent an overheating economy, which very well might push the economy into a recession. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, to discuss the latest jobs report, the outlook for the labor market and our latest thoughts on the risk of a recession in 2022 or 2023. 

 

For more insights, please visit our On the Minds of Investors webpage. 

The U.S. Fiscal and Midterms Outlook

As investors mull recession risks, they will also soon have to grapple with the midterm elections and how changes in politics may cause uncertainty in the economic outlook. As rates have risen on the back of Fed tightening, does this pose an issue for the government's ability to service the debt? After two years of extraordinary fiscal stimulus, what is outlook for fiscal spending going forward and what are its implications for investors?

On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist, to discuss politics and the fiscal outlook ahead of the midterm elections, in a conversation moderated by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst.

Unpacking the Tumultuous Equity Market

The equity markets have seen a tumultuous and fairly disappointing few months in 2022. Investor sentiment has turned extremely bearish due to a land war in Ukraine, a more hawkish and aggressive Fed, and rising and persistent inflation. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Andrew Tyler, Head of U.S. Market Intelligence, to discuss the current state of equity markets, the factors driving recent volatility, the takeaways form 1Q22 earnings season and the further implications of the Fed's rate hiking cycle on equity markets.

For additional insights on the 1Q22 earnings season, check out our latest bulletin written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas.

Real Estate Booms, Busts and Structural Change

While the 21st Century has seen a wide variety of housing markets with massive booms and busts, never in all these years, have there been so few properties on the market. This has fueled a surge in home prices that might look reminiscent of the 2006 housing boom. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Mike Kelly, Head of US Real Estate, to discuss the current housing market, the surge in housing costs, and the long term impacts of the pandemic on certain real estate sectors. For additional insights, visit our On the Minds of Investors webpage.

Building Resilient Portfolios

The last few months have seen a swift and significant recalibration in markets. Inflation looks to be higher and stickier than previously assumed. The Fed has shifted more hawkish, now penciling upwards of seven hikes in 2022 and eyeing a faster pace of balance sheet reduction. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, Portfolio Manager on the Multi-Asset Solutions group at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss asset allocation in an environment with higher uncertainty on interest rates and inflation. In light of recent geopolitical events , we are reminded that there is always the potential for unknown shocks to disrupt the investment outlook. Tune in to hear how Phil Camporeale is building resiliency in diversified portfolios to navigate today's bumpy environment and invest for the long haul.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, check out the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and newsletter on Apple, Spotify and LinkedIn.

The Fed’s New Playbook

The Federal Reserve recently hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018 and delivered a hawkish surprise to investors by way of its updated dot plot and economic projections. Since the Fed cut rates to zero in March 2020, the U.S. economy has well recovered with inflation running persistently well above the Fed's 2% target. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jordan Jackson, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the new outlook for the Fed and the risks that surround their decision to quickly tighten policy. Can the Fed's more aggressive stance put the economy into a recession? Or are the risks of waiting to tighten just too high? What does all this mean for investors? 

For additional insights on the Fed, check out Jordan Jackson's recent On the Minds of Investors article "How might markets perform as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates?" linked here. 

Implications of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought horrible human consequences, but for investors it’s also raised a lot of questions. On this episode, we review the broad implications of the Russian invasion for investors in a special roundtable interview. Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Maccarrone, equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and retired General Mastin Robeson, member of the Academy Security's Geopolitical Team, in a discussion moderated by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. General Robeson sheds light on the current state of play in geopolitics and the scenarios that may unfold, while David Maccarrone and Dr. Kelly discuss the implications around commodities, inflation, and fiscal and monetary policy.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, check out the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and newsletter on Spotify, Apple, and LinkedIn.