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Alternative Realities: The fundamentals of alternatives

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In this episode: 

The classic 60/40 stock-bond allocation has long been the accepted stalwart portfolio strategy. Currently, however, higher inflation has made the protection typically offered by the negative correlation between stocks and bonds less certain. Equity risk premiums are low, and interest rate volatility is high. On top of all that, public markets are becoming increasingly efficient, muting opportunities for excess return. As a result, investors are turning to Alternatives to ensure portfolios can still meet their long-term goals. Each alternative asset class has distinct characteristics and consequently a distinct role in portfolios.

Dr. David Kelly is joined by Shawn Khazzam, Head of Private Wealth Alternatives, Americas, to discuss the different ways clients are using alternatives to enhance the risk-reward profile of their portfolios. Shawn is responsible for the growth strategy, sales and distribution of the private market alternative investments offered by the firm.

Resources: 

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What might the November elections mean for investment strategy?

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The 2024 presidential election is well underway and has already delivered a host of surprising twists and turns. Against a backdrop of relatively stable economic growth and quite impressive U.S. stock market returns, the election adds a source of uncertainty for investors. Could the election outcome pose a risk to markets, or certain sectors and asset classes? And, in what can sometimes be a tense and polarizing time in society, how can investors navigate this uncertainty and invest with confidence this year?

In the final episode of this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Stephanie Aliaga, a Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to help address these questions.

How will rising federal debt impact the markets and the economy?

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Deficit spending is not at all a new phenomenon in the United States. In fact, it is the norm, and the U.S. has run a budget deficit in 81 of the last 95 years, or 85% of the time since 1929. What is abnormal, however, is how large the pile of U.S. debt has grown relative to the broader economy. In fiscal year 2023, U.S. debt held by the public ballooned to $26.3tn, or a striking 97% of GDP, while the budget deficit rose to 6.2% of GDP, and projections from the Congressional Budget Office suggest that the debt dilemma may only get worse in the coming years. With the election quickly approaching, and last year’s debt ceiling and downgrade drama still fresh in investors’ minds, we often get asked “How will rising federal debt impact the markets and the economy?”

To help us dive deeper into this question, Brandon Hall, Research Analyst, interviews the usual host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Will inflation ever get back to 2%?

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Before 2021, the United States hadn’t seen a major bout of inflation for almost 40 years. And even when inflation peaked in June 2022, consensus estimates showed that most thought inflation would be almost back to 2% by the end of 2024. However, the journey to 2% has been more challenging than expected. Since mid-2023, inflation has remained in the 3-4% range, primarily due to persistently high shelter and auto insurance prices. This has caused the Fed to be on an extended pause. However, the latest CPI report brought some positive news, showing a month-over-month decline in prices for the first time in over a year. Year-over-year CPI inflation now sits at 3.0%, still well above a number consistent with the Fed’s 2% target for the personal consumption deflator.

This episode explores if inflation can get back to its 2% target, the potential obstacles, and whether inflation even needs to be 2%. With this and the outlook for short-term interest rates being among the most dominant drivers of financial markets today, we think this discussion will be particularly useful.

To help us dive deeper into this question, Mary Park Durham, Research Associate, will be interviewing the usual host, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

How long before the next recession?

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Going into 2023, almost everyone was predicting a recession within the next 12 months. However, what we saw was quite the opposite: the U.S. economy grew at a 2.5% year-over-year pace, and the unemployment rate stayed below 4%. This positive momentum has continued into this year, although the economy is gradually cooling.

This robust economic performance has been puzzling because many of the typical recession indicators have been flashing red for a while. The U.S. had two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2022, the yield curve remains inverted, and credit markets are notably tighter. Despite these warning signs, the U.S. economy has managed to stave off a recession and appears resilient to higher interest rates. This raises the question: how long can the U.S. continue to avoid a recession, and if one were to occur, what would likely trigger it?

To help us dive deeper into this question, Mary Park Durham will be interviewing the usual host, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

When will the Federal Reserve begin cutting rates?

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After the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot in December, many investors came into this year expecting multiple rate cuts. In fact, in early January, markets were pricing in over six full cuts in 2024 alone. Since then, sticky inflation has caused the Federal Reserve to reassert its hawkish tone, and the outlook for the economy, inflation and monetary policy has become increasingly uncertain. As a result of this, investors often ask us “When will the Federal Reserve begin cutting rates?”

To dive deeper into this question, Brandon Hall, Research Analyst, will be interviewing the regular host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

How will AI reshape the U.S. economy and investment opportunities?

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Excitement around artificial intelligence has been a key driver behind strong market performance over the past year. This makes sense, as it has potential to be one of the most transformative technologies in modern history. That said, widespread AI implementation is still in its early stages, and its broader implications for the economy and investing remain unknown. This has left many investors wondering, “How will AI shape the markets and the economy?”

To help answer this question, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Joe Wilson, Portfolio Manager, for a discussion on artificial intelligence and its potential impacts on the economy and markets.

How can you minimize taxes in your investment strategy?

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As technology has improved, so has market efficiency, and generating alpha through active management is as challenging a task as ever. In light of this, “tax alpha,” or creating value through tax management strategies, has grown in importance and popularity and has left investors asking, “How can I minimize taxes in your investment strategy?”

 

For today’s episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the outlook for taxes, and how investors can minimize their tax burden.

How do different generations invest – and how should they?

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From Baby Boomers to Generation Z, each generation has faced their own unique set of investment challenges and opportunities during their lifetimes. While the bulk of wealth in the U.S. belongs to older generations, wealth amongst younger generations is growing rapidly, and they represent an increasingly important piece of the investment pie. As advisors prepare for the next generation of investors, the question of “how do, and how should, different generations invest?” has been top of mind. To help answer this question, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

For more insights visit our website here.

Why add international stocks to a portfolio?

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A long cycle of U.S. equity outperformance over international equities has left investors wondering, “why add international stocks to a portfolio?” However, as the global economy has turned a corner, so have prospects for international equities, and many international markets have performed well in 2024 so far. In fact, more than half of the 50 top performing companies this year are located outside of the U.S. In addition to favorable valuations, an improving economic backdrop and positive fundamentals should highlight plenty of opportunities across the globe.

On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by joined by Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to share her views on the benefits of allocating internationally.