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Alternatives in a higher rate, slower growth world

2022 has been a challenging year for most public asset classes, leaving many investors at odds on how to position portfolios, protect against inflation and identify areas for potential excess returns going forward. While markets have been more challenging, the need for income, capital appreciation and capital preservation has not changed. That’s where alternative investments may provide some solutions.

On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, to discuss the outlook for Alternatives in an environment with higher rates and slower growth.

For more information on the Guide to Alternatives, please visit our website here.

The Labor Market: Cyclical strength and structural change

Today, as investors mull the increasing risk of a U.S. recession, the strength in the labor market can be a double-edged sword. On one end, a healthy labor market with red-hot demand for workers could protect the economy from high unemployment in the next recession. On the other end, too-hot of a labor market gives the Fed a greater need to act aggressively to tame inflation and prevent an overheating economy, which very well might push the economy into a recession. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, to discuss the latest jobs report, the outlook for the labor market and our latest thoughts on the risk of a recession in 2022 or 2023. 

 

For more insights, please visit our On the Minds of Investors webpage. 

The U.S. Fiscal and Midterms Outlook

As investors mull recession risks, they will also soon have to grapple with the midterm elections and how changes in politics may cause uncertainty in the economic outlook. As rates have risen on the back of Fed tightening, does this pose an issue for the government's ability to service the debt? After two years of extraordinary fiscal stimulus, what is outlook for fiscal spending going forward and what are its implications for investors?

On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist, to discuss politics and the fiscal outlook ahead of the midterm elections, in a conversation moderated by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst.

Unpacking the Tumultuous Equity Market

The equity markets have seen a tumultuous and fairly disappointing few months in 2022. Investor sentiment has turned extremely bearish due to a land war in Ukraine, a more hawkish and aggressive Fed, and rising and persistent inflation. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Andrew Tyler, Head of U.S. Market Intelligence, to discuss the current state of equity markets, the factors driving recent volatility, the takeaways form 1Q22 earnings season and the further implications of the Fed's rate hiking cycle on equity markets.

For additional insights on the 1Q22 earnings season, check out our latest bulletin written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas.

Real Estate Booms, Busts and Structural Change

While the 21st Century has seen a wide variety of housing markets with massive booms and busts, never in all these years, have there been so few properties on the market. This has fueled a surge in home prices that might look reminiscent of the 2006 housing boom. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Mike Kelly, Head of US Real Estate, to discuss the current housing market, the surge in housing costs, and the long term impacts of the pandemic on certain real estate sectors. For additional insights, visit our On the Minds of Investors webpage.

Building Resilient Portfolios

The last few months have seen a swift and significant recalibration in markets. Inflation looks to be higher and stickier than previously assumed. The Fed has shifted more hawkish, now penciling upwards of seven hikes in 2022 and eyeing a faster pace of balance sheet reduction. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, Portfolio Manager on the Multi-Asset Solutions group at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss asset allocation in an environment with higher uncertainty on interest rates and inflation. In light of recent geopolitical events , we are reminded that there is always the potential for unknown shocks to disrupt the investment outlook. Tune in to hear how Phil Camporeale is building resiliency in diversified portfolios to navigate today's bumpy environment and invest for the long haul.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, check out the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and newsletter on Apple, Spotify and LinkedIn.

The Fed’s New Playbook

The Federal Reserve recently hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018 and delivered a hawkish surprise to investors by way of its updated dot plot and economic projections. Since the Fed cut rates to zero in March 2020, the U.S. economy has well recovered with inflation running persistently well above the Fed's 2% target. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jordan Jackson, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the new outlook for the Fed and the risks that surround their decision to quickly tighten policy. Can the Fed's more aggressive stance put the economy into a recession? Or are the risks of waiting to tighten just too high? What does all this mean for investors? 

For additional insights on the Fed, check out Jordan Jackson's recent On the Minds of Investors article "How might markets perform as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates?" linked here. 

Implications of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought horrible human consequences, but for investors it’s also raised a lot of questions. On this episode, we review the broad implications of the Russian invasion for investors in a special roundtable interview. Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Maccarrone, equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and retired General Mastin Robeson, member of the Academy Security's Geopolitical Team, in a discussion moderated by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. General Robeson sheds light on the current state of play in geopolitics and the scenarios that may unfold, while David Maccarrone and Dr. Kelly discuss the implications around commodities, inflation, and fiscal and monetary policy.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, check out the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and newsletter on Spotify, Apple, and LinkedIn.

Solving for Climate Change with ESG

On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the efforts against climate change and the investment opportunities that may underlie this transition towards a more sustainable future. As the need to fight climate change has become more pronounced, sustainable investing has increasingly come into focus for investors. This episode discusses the outlook for U.S. climate spending, Europe’s energy transition as the conflict in Russia-Ukraine flares up, China and its green initiatives, and the investment opportunities in agriculture, transportation, food and water, and energy efficiency. Tune in to hear two of J.P. Morgan’s thought leaders discuss these issues and more.

To learn more about the opportunities in sustainable food & water, read Meera Pandit’s latest On the Minds of Investors article.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, check out the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and newsletter on Spotify, Apple, and LinkedIn.

Investing in China in the Year of the Tiger

On the first episode of Season 4, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss what investors should expect from China in the Year of the Tiger and beyond. As China rings in the New Year, the road ahead holds substantial political and economic significance, from the Winter Olympics in Beijing to the Communist Party's 20th National Congress. China also faces substantial challenges in managing a potential property bubble, zero-tolerance approach to Covid and contentious international relationships. However, for investors, cheaper valuations and China's emphasis on growth stability with easy monetary and fiscal policies have supported the case for adding Chinese assets to portfolios. Tune in to hear two of J.P. Morgan's thought leaders discuss these issues and more.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, check out the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast and newsletter on Spotify, Apple, and LinkedIn.

To read more from our thought leaders at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, visit our On the Minds of Investors blog.